Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b2f2c3d799c6b571793b1ca24f4c1b91313a1b320b72f093ca846be6b0306e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 48c | 814.32$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.77 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 66c | 533.09$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.18 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 39c | 492.32$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.49 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 49c | 392.64$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 319.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 43c | 282.6$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 51c | 196.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 62c | 193.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 176.64$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 55c | 167$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.43 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 58c | 153.05$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 67c | 149.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 64c | 149.54$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 61c | 141.15$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 40c | 139.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 136.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 125$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 52c | 115$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 46c | 104$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 35c | 103.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 99.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 98.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 42c | 91.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 56c | 89.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 46c | 77.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 36c | 76.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 59c | 75.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 75c | 62.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 58.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 43c | 52.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed No | 24c | 49.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 48.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 47.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 39c | 45.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 61c | 41.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 37c | 37.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 56c | 37.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 58c | 35.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 34c | 35.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 67c | 33.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 33.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 53c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 41c | 29.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4f…5ec9backed No | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 51c | 27.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 39c | 27.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…1df6backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 57c | 21.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 69c | 21.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 58c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 63c | 19.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 56c | 19.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…47e4backed Yes | 66c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…2321backed Yes | 80c | 16.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.