Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b30f46fe4dc42557f12a431f47021c45cbceb0c45568c3ece94832d558e334c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 1c | 11,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 16c | 495.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 53c | 475.37$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.08 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 60c | 365.93$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.7 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 55c | 314.63$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.44 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 56c | 275.83$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…dbe4backed Yes | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 55c | 177.49$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 165.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 28c | 157.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 151.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 133.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 52c | 133.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 123.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 110.24$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 98.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 95.67$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 83.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa127…4e1fbacked Yes | 28c | 82.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 53c | 74.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 72.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 49c | 71.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 42c | 59.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 21c | 55.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 50.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 44c | 50.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 42c | 47.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 47c | 47.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 23c | 44.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 43c | 40.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc27e…d4fbbacked Yes | 50c | 40.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 55c | 40.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 43c | 37.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 32c | 35.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 45c | 31.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 25.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…8c5bbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 42c | 24.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 23.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 48c | 23.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 44c | 23.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 46c | 22.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bc…e100backed No | 69c | 21.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…52a1backed Yes | 53c | 20.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 54c | 20.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…c974backed No | 69c | 20.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…1369backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 55c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c8…f565backed Yes | 63c | 17.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…c681backed No | 71c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.