Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x979461918f044ad446046f0830d9ef85b10bb22ba030e59d926507425255c13a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 244.77$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 240.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 66c | 191.1$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.94 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 191.03$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 27c | 183.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.15 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 79c | 170.54$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 27c | 146.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.73 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 54c | 145.31$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 45c | 142.87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 63c | 135.25$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 134.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 123.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 33c | 122$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 110$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 109.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 41c | 104.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 37c | 102.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 102.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 102$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 97.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 65c | 89.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 38c | 81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 68c | 76.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 74.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 72.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 71.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 29c | 69.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 68.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 24c | 62.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 65c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 56.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 69c | 55.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 32c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed Yes | 59c | 52.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 74c | 49.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 49.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 49.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 70c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 43.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 28c | 41.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 64c | 41.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c8…f565backed Yes | 46c | 36.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 36.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…2b87backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 74c | 33.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 32c | 32.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…52a1backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 76c | 31.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 30.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 65c | 26.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 69c | 20.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 59c | 20.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 80c | 20.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…010bbacked No | 70c | 18.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 66c | 17.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa46…4a23backed No | 72c | 16.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 79c | 16.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 15.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 73c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.