Other European Leagues · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Porto: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b5598f53a4a20fef51c3deb9c3579e9c269ecbb9084111a463200258c5c5d0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,524 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fd9…1ef0backed Over | 65c | 6,710$4,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,348.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 35c | 5,300$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.9 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 1,604$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.81 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…f7f1backed Over | 66c | 1,581$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 35c | 733.28$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.87 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 36c | 579.12$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.51 | 136 | 26.5%36 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 65c | 499.97$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.99 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 64c | 383.91$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.21 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 65c | 323.67$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.94 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 35c | 301.02$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.89 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 36c | 227.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.79 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 67c | 154.25$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Under | 33c | 151.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Under | 30c | 151$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…f856backed Under | 35c | 140.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 25c | 132.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 206 | 32%66 W · 140 L | -17.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 35c | 122.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Over | 65c | 121.54$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c37…ad47backed Over | 65c | 87.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…6714backed Over | 74c | 81.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 66c | 76.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 26c | 75.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Under | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed Under | 35c | 45.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…b81dbacked Over | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Under | 29c | 37.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bd…1298backed Over | 65c | 35.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 33c | 32.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 283 | 49.1%139 W · 144 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…2b46backed Over | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 73c | 27.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 252 | 63.5%160 W · 92 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc252…0aebbacked Over | 66c | 24.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…cbe8backed Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 72cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 212 | 54.7%116 W · 96 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Over | 68c | 19.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Porto: O/U 1.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Porto: O/U 3.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)FC Porto won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.