NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b7d980ab869df8a49c3f92af2232c35bfd69172e126721349dfd8e6d088b0f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ducksof Ducks, Stars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9070…bcc3backed Ducks | 29c | 1,030$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2b…1910backed Ducks | 29c | 980$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ducks | 37c | 635$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.09 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…4743backed Stars | 71c | 400$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f6…bb9abacked Stars | 71c | 370$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd929…2182backed Stars | 71c | 340$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e81…a6f0backed Stars | 71c | 320$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda5…61d6backed Stars | 71c | 290$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8c…dbd1backed Stars | 71c | 290$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Stars | 62c | 249.31$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.99 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Ducks | 27c | 165.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.03 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Stars | 74c | 154.84$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Stars | 62c | 142.03$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Ducks | 26c | 124.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Stars | 71c | 116.38$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Stars | 65c | 84.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Ducks | 29c | 82.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Stars | 65c | 64.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Stars | 74c | 54.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 60.9%84 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Ducks | 27c | 52.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Ducks | 26c | 52.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Stars | 63c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…5042backed Stars | 73c | 38.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Stars | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Stars | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Stars | 64c | 16.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Ducks won
- Stars vs. DucksDucks won
- Stars vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.