Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b9c0515fc56c4c32b37da32ba6327abfa1ee21eb45e424893986cd19643555f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 23c | 747.93$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.47 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 416.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 226.01$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 6c | 195.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…e667backed Yes | 21c | 145.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 7c | 140$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 78c | 121.22$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 114.7$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 113.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 96.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 22c | 94.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 21c | 69.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 23c | 65.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 61.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 80c | 60.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 57.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 53.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 79c | 50.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 46.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 45.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c2…5c65backed No | 75c | 41.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26e1…4e79backed No | 79c | 39.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 80c | 36.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 30.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 29.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 76c | 26.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 76c | 26.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 78c | 24.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 24.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 77c | 23.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…79debacked No | 78c | 21.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002a…61b7backed No | 80c | 21.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 80c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 80c | 18.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 18.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 15.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 13.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.