Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9e1b40097082fc9a5206e10055ebbae84bd3e08f54036c4c9dbfb572e1858ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 16c | 288.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 36c | 220.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.92 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 207.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 184.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 6c | 165.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a3…68efbacked Yes | 29c | 158.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 80c | 153.45$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.11 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 79c | 126.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 34c | 108.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83bd…a2a0backed Yes | 27c | 105.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 104$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 22c | 102.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.86 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 72c | 99.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 53c | 98.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 92.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 91.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked No | 77c | 80.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 30c | 65.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 59.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 70c | 55.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 61c | 51.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 66c | 48.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 46.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 66c | 37.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…9086backed No | 76c | 32.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 74c | 32.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 31.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 80c | 31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 29.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0415…9c0abacked No | 73c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 28.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 57c | 25.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 25.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 24.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 63c | 23.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…9240backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…e6d2backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…a93cbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 75cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.