Mls · resolved market
Will New York City FC beat Atlanta United FC?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b9d67c0dcf4338ecc689c3246c345cda964187f9d2b6758ee5dbf82e9ec88c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked Yes | 51c | 25,613$13,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,446.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 49c | 13,047$6,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,330.63 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3503…b8babacked No | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ac…957dbacked No | 65c | 3,131$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 52c | 2,934$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.77 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 35c | 2,899$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,884.19 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed No | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 48c | 970.53$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.85 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 54c | 689$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 53c | 437.98$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 48c | 399.96$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.98 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 49c | 234.54$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.61 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 49c | 196.15$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 51c | 196.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 49c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 49c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe0…e12cbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…04b1backed Yes | 47c | 21.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York City FC beat Atlanta United FC?this page
- Will Atlanta United FC beat New York City FC?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.