Serie A · resolved market
Will US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ba8631204bf8021664762d832002364d5f46a5f46233bceb83a3b434be74340
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 78c | 6,066$4,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.37 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 21c | 4,614$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.92 | 326 | 50.6%165 W · 161 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 29c | 3,401$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.43 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.99 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…1b97backed No | 71c | 1,535$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.09 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 28c | 1,313$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.74 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 26c | 768.98$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.93 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 29c | 345$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86be…4490backed Yes | 29c | 303.73$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 21c | 299.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 284.83$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef79…d251backed No | 72c | 268.41$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…ed46backed No | 71c | 240$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b3…70d9backed No | 72c | 239.9$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 29c | 238.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…4dc6backed No | 71c | 238.04$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 222.76$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 418 | 54.8%229 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36be…30bcbacked No | 72c | 221.22$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 21c | 190.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 129 | 20.2%26 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…8ba4backed No | 71c | 183.75$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526b…a0e9backed No | 72c | 171.42$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c5…1f4cbacked No | 71c | 161.15$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 28c | 154.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…996fbacked No | 71c | 153.29$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c2…b4f4backed No | 72c | 134.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…6628backed No | 72c | 129.78$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 29c | 114.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x277e…5cfcbacked No | 72c | 113.07$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Yes | 29c | 110.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x868e…f152backed No | 72c | 108.15$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…314abacked No | 72c | 105.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 29c | 95.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 72c | 89.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed No | 71c | 69.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…ba43backed No | 72c | 68.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Yes | 29c | 66.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…cc46backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6caa…4fb3backed Yes | 29c | 49.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6c…e9a0backed Yes | 29c | 49.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 28c | 49.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…4a7cbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 73cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfedc…61d1backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked No | 75c | 29.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked No | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…83a5backed No | 72c | 27.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 72c | 22.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw?this page
- Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-05?Yes won
- Will US Cremonese win on 2026-04-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.