Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bca6b7e4e2bb8a3f1b228e1fadedf0047a7ce9509b955e115ae42e7c5ba93c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 732.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 14c | 680.02$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 637.83$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 499.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 493.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 76c | 470.37$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.47 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed Yes | 4c | 374.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 352.09$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 14c | 351.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 345.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 43c | 327.69$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.13 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 293.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…1968backed Yes | 13c | 261.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 259.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f3…92d6backed Yes | 16c | 247.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 11c | 235.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 10c | 210.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 207.07$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 5c | 194.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 6c | 193.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 187.7$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed No | 63c | 164.58$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 136.32$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1c…6aeabacked Yes | 8c | 129.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 38c | 97.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 52c | 93.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 86.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…8ad6backed Yes | 18c | 85.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 16c | 72.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 68c | 70.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd513…e249backed Yes | 20c | 70.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 30c | 64.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057b…9819backed Yes | 18c | 62.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 60c | 61.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 50c | 59.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 69c | 58.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…0732backed Yes | 57c | 52.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 60c | 49.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 67c | 48.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 35c | 44.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 61c | 43.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 45c | 41.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 44c | 39.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 46c | 38.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…4776backed No | 76c | 38.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed Yes | 43c | 37.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 56c | 35.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…dc3abacked Yes | 60c | 34.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 55c | 34.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 68c | 33.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 52c | 33.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 35c | 30.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 76c | 28.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…fad1backed No | 56c | 27.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 74c | 26.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 75c | 21.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 62c | 20.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 63c | 18.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.