Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8e316b46ac62f912ee6148fda7943281c874f58bfc9c01a0ddfa0617e965bad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x156e…8b70backed Yes | 1c | 20,105$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 56c | 1,991$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.06 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 802.75$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 772.9$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 560.21$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 44c | 549.13$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.13 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 47c | 537.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.03 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 536.23$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 445.97$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.63 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 434.36$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 43c | 272.2$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 260.34$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 48c | 256.52$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.12 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 59c | 247.17$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.33 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe945…5fbbbacked Yes | 10c | 241.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 63c | 241.1$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.33 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 11c | 230.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 37c | 219.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 209.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 72c | 203.27$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 186$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 153.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 18c | 149.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 70c | 147.91$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.97 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 58c | 142.41$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 51c | 140.81$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 25c | 124.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 56c | 122.72$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 114.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed Yes | 41c | 113.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b09…6628backed Yes | 11c | 111.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 35c | 101.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 11c | 99.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 33c | 97.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 59c | 84.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked No | 46c | 81.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 64c | 80.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 79.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 35c | 79.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 68c | 78.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 39c | 76.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 57c | 74.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 60c | 72.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 59c | 68.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 36c | 68.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 67.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c5…671bbacked Yes | 26c | 66.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 76c | 64.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 45c | 62.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 39c | 59.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…5e50backed No | 63c | 58.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 80c | 58.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 35c | 56.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 53c | 56.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 58c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…83f2backed Yes | 49c | 55.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 63c | 52.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 61c | 51.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 40c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 45c | 50.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…1096backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 49.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 78c | 49.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 35c | 49.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes | 46c | 48.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked No | 60c | 47.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 60c | 47.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 41c | 47.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 46c | 47.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb4…5071backed No | 65c | 45.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 33c | 45.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…2a43backed No | 60c | 44.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…4636backed No | 41c | 43.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…5ec5backed No | 65c | 43.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 64c | 41.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 36c | 40.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 37.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 29c | 36.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 57c | 33.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed Yes | 45c | 32.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…e954backed Yes | 44c | 32.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f6…6cc9backed No | 63c | 31.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 63c | 30.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 51c | 30.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 65c | 30.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 63c | 29.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed No | 48c | 29.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.