TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,466
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,716

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,466 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes53c1,226$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.56,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes18c918.27$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.394,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No42c768.19$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.9212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a8e…0c17backed No75c570.48$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.19475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick78cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes35c502.28$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.591,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a99…e614backed Yes7c498.61$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.718116.6%30 W · 151 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c481.78$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.0417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes13c387.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.781,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes28c324.64$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.497,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes33c295.27$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.891,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes12c276.76$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.712,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd8…5d8bbacked Yes6c272.12$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.242128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No80c239.77$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.1953437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No22c235.78$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9633620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes70c227.02$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.111,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3975…75fabacked Yes14c209$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.756918.8%13 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e84…659dbacked No76c203.25$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.193473.5%25 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No64c198.75$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.081,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No72c197.86$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.310569.5%73 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No16c179.36$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.821,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes20c162.7$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.1549038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes16c156.74$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.2834618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x105c…1011backed Yes10c149.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9911220.5%23 W · 89 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes31c148.24$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.671752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3182…4ff7backed No59c142.48$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9214168.1%96 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd1…d384backed Yes8c140$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.751486.8%10 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes36c133.69$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7821142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes73c132.94$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.629877.6%76 W · 22 L+16.3wins+0.17per pick61cpaid+38.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No19c124.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4137056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes34c121.43$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0839535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No58c119.61$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.014,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No18c118.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.027,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No19c106.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9545162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes33c102.51$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0849750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b73…fad1backed No12c100.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.691546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+31.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2002…996bbacked Yes75c96.72$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.186578.5%51 W · 14 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+22.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8110…c1babacked Yes39c94.88$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.618250%41 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes66c90.73$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2999961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes37c84.31$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7531029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa17…aa48backed Yes14c73.95$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5912226.2%32 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+133.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes27c71.84$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4520835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No57c69.07$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2634970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd088…a3eabacked No78c68.62$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.237972.2%57 W · 22 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No62c67.85$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes27c67.22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.88,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes17c65.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8931442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes20c65.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked No65c62.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.416740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0df…7800backed No35c62.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No67c60.23$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.61,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No72c59.77$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.19,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes32c58.25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6114544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No38c56.96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.856424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes33c55.71$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1654043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes34c55.14$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4611044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe58a…e8b4backed Yes27c54.64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.81225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes20c53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.49,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes31c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes41c48.02$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.556524.6%16 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes45c47.25$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9925037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No69c46.25$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.992,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes79c44.7$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.334067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb897…7007backed Yes31c43.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2211038.2%42 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed No50c43.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5414113.5%19 W · 122 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes29c42.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.159125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes31c40.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.721350.2%107 W · 106 L+19.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes27c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.151,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b9c…9aa1backed No71c39.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.21838.9%7 W · 11 L-5.2wins-0.29per pick68cpaid-44.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes39c39.64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.182,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes77c37.7$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7930046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No49c36.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8498160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes42c34.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4226344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No61c31.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.222,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No63c31.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.591,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2691…70e1backed No56c27.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.432661.5%16 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes60c27.02$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.811,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No79c26.65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0528954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No69c25.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7323349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3b7…b30abacked Yes43c24.48$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.865474.1%40 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4453…2b6bbacked No65c23.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5213081.5%106 W · 24 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick72cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfc9f…b4e1backed No59c21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.297153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.860236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes70c19.4$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8427463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26c9…910bbacked Yes62c19.21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.352075%15 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbfc…0be4backed No61c19.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.723735.1%13 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5b07…e4c5backed No63c19.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.058748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1863…1a8cbacked No65c18.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked No63c18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2623463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes80c16.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.324763.8%30 W · 17 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba6e…e245backed No79c13.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.928676.7%66 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.