MLB · resolved market
Will Shohei Ohtani win MVP at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bdf29d97316be50d8cdb1edfccd8b751892e674e9073b65f0b372de646cf1c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,287 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb835…2e51backed No | 80c | 1,225$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…95d4backed Yes | 23c | 1,200$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed No | 76c | 1,008$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.63 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 998$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…f44abacked Yes | 22c | 896.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 70c | 708.59$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.58 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed No | 79c | 550.94$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.27 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0059…ffb2backed Yes | 20c | 428.67$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes | 26c | 388.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6b…902bbacked Yes | 25c | 199.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…0427backed No | 75c | 199.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4342…5797backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 23c | 129.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…6e84backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8852…b6bebacked Yes | 22c | 92.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked Yes | 19c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…3e2cbacked Yes | 23c | 71.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +214.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 59.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 57.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…0dcdbacked Yes | 30c | 50.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 72c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +86%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shohei Ohtani win MVP at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?this page
- Will Aaron Judge win MVP at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Bobby Witt Jr. win MVP at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Bryce Harper win MVP at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Fernando Tatis Jr. win MVP at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Juan Soto win MVP at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Ronald Acuña Jr. win MVP at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Tarik Skubal win MVP at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. win MVP at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.