Tennis · resolved market
Tauson vs. Pegula: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5be89d73932adf568a6ee335d79e7e25d109aea96b0a8cf421d2dc09c3117543
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fd6…779bbacked Under | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…892fbacked Over | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Over | 51c | 586.15$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.15 | 145 | 68.3%99 W · 46 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 48c | 374.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.99 | 243 | 40.3%98 W · 145 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 49c | 272.42$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.03 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 49c | 248.18$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.61 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…5dfebacked Under | 56c | 179.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 51c | 168.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 146.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.47 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 42c | 143.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.54 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6141…ded2backed Over | 50c | 99.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 43c | 73.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 47c | 72.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Over | 50c | 67.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 646 | 37.2%240 W · 406 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…ea75backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Under | 55c | 45.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 51c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tauson vs. Pegula: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Clara Tauson vs Jessica PegulaPegula won
- Set 1 Winner: Tauson vs PegulaPegula won
- Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Tauson (+1.5)Tauson won
- Tauson vs. Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.