Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Tauson (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda37d56b3d3e1d709c958cd651bf71b9df47c104e8fcf188e8a1d638ca005c25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tausonof Pegula, Tauson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a08…f99ebacked Tauson | 51c | 15,228$7,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,461.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bde…ca3abacked Pegula | 49c | 10,085$4,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,941.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c26…69c2backed Tauson | 51c | 8,005$4,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,922.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd997…53f2backed Pegula | 49c | 8,005$3,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,922.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…a070backed Pegula | 49c | 5,143$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Pegula | 53c | 1,455$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.46 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tauson | 42c | 831.61$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.63 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Tauson | 53c | 658.23$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.23 | 145 | 68.3%99 W · 46 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Pegula | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 465 | 53.8%250 W · 215 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Pegula | 65c | 489.05$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.73 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Tauson | 47c | 413$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.24 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…71e9backed Pegula | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Pegula | 53c | 378.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tauson | 46c | 339.42$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.79 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Pegula | 54c | 204.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Tauson | 51c | 194.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.68 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…5dfebacked Tauson | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…3201backed Pegula | 54c | 152.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 189 | 57.7%109 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Pegula | 49c | 102.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…e4bebacked Pegula | 53c | 99.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Pegula | 54c | 82.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Pegula | 44c | 82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Tauson | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Pegula | 63c | 69.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Tauson | 40c | 53.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Pegula | 38c | 49.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…5fa9backed Pegula | 53c | 47.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Tauson | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 418 | 46.2%193 W · 225 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Pegula | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Pegula | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Pegula | 46c | 24.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Tauson | 48c | 20.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Tauson (+1.5)this page
- Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Clara Tauson vs Jessica PegulaPegula won
- Set 1 Winner: Tauson vs PegulaPegula won
- Tauson vs. Pegula: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Tauson vs. Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.