Serie A · resolved market
Lazio vs. Cagliari: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c1af67c641292b8d2103069188976e9c7cf13d90a85590f42232548780a8342
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 44c | 12,384$5,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,510.06 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Under | 56c | 8,666$4,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,835.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 8,303$4,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,720.02 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Over | 47c | 1,020$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Under | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 53c | 443.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.67 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 53c | 441.89$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.2 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 54c | 277.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 59c | 263.26$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over | 39c | 256$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 44c | 228.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +171.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Over | 46c | 218.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Under | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 45c | 133.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01ef…3298backed Over | 32c | 107.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Under | 56c | 107.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 53c | 97.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ba82backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…f4d0backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa2…2da1backed Over | 46c | 43.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d6…851dbacked Over | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…d772backed Over | 45c | 31.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…66b0backed Over | 47c | 30.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Over | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…bd7fbacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 51c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4814…a24abacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa351…17c3backed Under | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lazio vs. Cagliari: O/U 2.5this page
- Lazio vs. Cagliari: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Lazio (-1.5)Lazio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.