Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 4 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c7ce609046ac77a3b08766aac2617406277ac6e9fee60f9b9021fa57d42c0b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Team Lynx, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Lynx | 30c | 2,674$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.03 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Nemiga Gaming | 72c | 988.12$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.16 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Lynx | 33c | 599.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 577.32$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.79 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Nemiga Gaming | 73c | 483.64$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.58 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2c…0978backed Nemiga Gaming | 77c | 359.31$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfa…7491backed Nemiga Gaming | 55c | 353.82$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.22 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…594fbacked Team Lynx | 16c | 236.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Nemiga Gaming | 65c | 230$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 38c | 191.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.79 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7044…5104backed Team Lynx | 25c | 173.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Nemiga Gaming | 58c | 167.06$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Nemiga Gaming | 67c | 146.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 120 | 65.8%79 W · 41 L | +15.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Team Lynx | 45c | 134.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Team Lynx | 16c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8050…a265backed Nemiga Gaming | 67c | 61.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 68c | 53.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…13f4backed Nemiga Gaming | 67c | 52.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Team Lynx | 39c | 51.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 548 | 48.5%266 W · 282 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Team Lynx | 64c | 48.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 80c | 39.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 542 | 59%320 W · 222 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 4 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming (BO5) - European Pro League PlayoffsTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 3 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.