Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ab10810acab6e70102475e6f39bf5a65c4b2ca0606aead602442222af2bc637
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Team Lynx, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 45c | 2,174$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.1 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Nemiga Gaming | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Team Lynx | 60c | 885.2$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.58 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 619.02$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.55 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 35c | 542.81$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.41 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 522.72$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.94 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Team Lynx | 51c | 485.3$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 459.53$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.56 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Lynx | 52c | 429.65$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.51 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Lynx | 55c | 306.49$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.93 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Nemiga Gaming | 35c | 297.19$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.11 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…7367backed Team Lynx | 53c | 235.18$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.64 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 38c | 218.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.44 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Team Lynx | 60c | 192.7$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.67 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Lynx | 73c | 163.24$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.36 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…b7b5backed Team Lynx | 63c | 155.21$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 150.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.68 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Lynx | 50c | 142.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Lynx | 76c | 130.31$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Team Lynx | 52c | 124$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Team Lynx | 52c | 124$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Lynx | 70c | 120$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9233…b93abacked Team Lynx | 62c | 117.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 78c | 109.74$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nemiga Gaming | 23c | 106$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.88 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Nemiga Gaming | 15c | 105.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…f538backed Team Lynx | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +11.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked Team Lynx | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Lynx | 59c | 98.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Team Lynx | 51c | 85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 80.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0737…fe78backed Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 77.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…66cbbacked Team Lynx | 56c | 68.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Team Lynx | 43c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Team Lynx | 43c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Team Lynx | 57c | 63.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 45c | 62.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Team Lynx | 36c | 62.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…f09ebacked Team Lynx | 43c | 60.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Team Lynx | 46c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Team Lynx | 50c | 56.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Team Lynx | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed Team Lynx | 62c | 48.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Team Lynx | 52c | 45.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…2d2dbacked Team Lynx | 69c | 38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 52c | 35.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed Team Lynx | 32c | 33.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…08fbbacked Team Lynx | 64c | 28.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked Team Lynx | 68c | 25.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Nemiga Gaming | 58c | 18.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed Team Lynx | 62c | 16.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming (BO5) - European Pro League PlayoffsTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 3 WinnerTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 4 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.