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Weather · resolved market

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 25?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,337
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,962

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,337 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8130…5a50backed No64c951.17$608 inWon+$343.383953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No22c454.49$100 inWon+$354.5326061.5%160 W · 100 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes67c298.87$200 inLost-$2005930.5%18 W · 41 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4989…983ebacked No10c279.08$27 inWon+$252.0236326.4%96 W · 267 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2851…6b8cbacked No17c271.47$47 inWon+$223.9773138.7%283 W · 448 L+36.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaea0…875abacked No10c200$20 inWon+$1806949.3%34 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No14c153.72$22 inWon+$131.7761421.8%134 W · 480 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes68c143.37$98 inLost-$97.6130828.2%87 W · 221 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c119.99$36 inWon+$843,03231.3%949 W · 2,083 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No41c107.14$44 inWon+$63.621,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes27c104$28 inLost-$28.0817436.2%63 W · 111 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+27.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost-$305925.4%15 W · 44 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed Yes23c100$23 inLost-$2359921.5%129 W · 470 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes74c93.99$70 inLost-$69.543542.9%15 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6bf1…294fbacked No58c87.37$51 inWon+$36.78018.8%15 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes13c87.3$11 inLost-$11.022,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d8c…f777backed Yes31c80.37$25 inLost-$256251.6%32 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6568…cd3ebacked Yes46c79$36 inLost-$36.272532%8 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc90c…9bb7backed No60c70$42 inWon+$282157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf06d…7dafbacked No71c65.41$46 inWon+$18.958576.5%65 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes18c59.99$11 inLost-$10.866327.8%184 W · 479 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes31c50$15 inLost-$15.56933.3%23 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2028…cacdbacked Yes50c44.78$22 inLost-$22.371250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3a7…2657backed Yes28c43.75$12 inLost-$12.2521331.9%68 W · 145 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ed7…e170backed No72c41.67$30 inWon+$11.672744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c40.5$15 inLost-$15.369,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes77c40.35$31 inLost-$31.1992145.6%420 W · 501 L-29.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x033d…fc0fbacked No64c40$26 inWon+$14.43070%21 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes34c40$14 inLost-$13.7313351.9%69 W · 64 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5673…32babacked Yes53c39.79$21 inLost-$21.124845.8%22 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb99b…b581backed Yes80c35.61$28 inLost-$28.4912944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd886…1746backed Yes39c34.19$13 inLost-$13.339055.6%50 W · 40 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes75c25.09$19 inLost-$18.832,25057%1,282 W · 968 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes48c23.31$11 inLost-$11.251,17840.6%478 W · 700 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa08b…270cbacked Yes61c19.65$12 inLost-$122564%16 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No70c18.66$13 inWon+$5.61,12855.4%625 W · 503 L-30.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x022d…f946backed No64c15.63$10 inWon+$5.634100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes72c14.17$10 inLost-$10.212,25456.9%1,283 W · 971 L+69.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.