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Weather · resolved market

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 25?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,934
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,255

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,934 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30fb…7db4backed No51c544.64$280 inLost-$280.154,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4989…983ebacked Yes61c375.65$228 inWon+$147.2736326.4%96 W · 267 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5673…32babacked Yes17c170.96$29 inWon+$141.614845.8%22 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No57c168.14$96 inLost-$95.651,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed Yes71c167.71$118 inWon+$49.2961122.7%139 W · 472 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes7c165.06$12 inWon+$152.9449332.9%162 W · 331 L+23.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d1…6c34backed Yes10c151.87$15 inWon+$136.591650%8 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+97.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes31c132$41 inWon+$90.8882742.8%354 W · 473 L+28.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No79c125$99 inLost-$99.139,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c120$36 inLost-$363,03231.3%949 W · 2,083 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Yes23c100$23 inWon+$77.518126.5%48 W · 133 L+12.3wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-2.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes67c100$67 inWon+$33.2330824.4%75 W · 233 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-28.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed Yes26c100$26 inWon+$7459921.5%129 W · 470 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf662…8bb7backed No60c98$59 inLost-$58.83040%12 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-33.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes51c93.73$48 inWon+$46.0447436.7%174 W · 300 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes11c88.93$10 inWon+$78.889712.4%12 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+61%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76f4…82dabacked Yes26c70$18 inWon+$51.679836.7%36 W · 62 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No55c67.82$37 inLost-$37.32,28657.3%1,309 W · 977 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No74c62$46 inLost-$45.662080%16 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d8c…f777backed Yes43c58.51$25 inWon+$33.516251.6%32 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25f0…7d92backed Yes34c58.5$20 inWon+$38.816543.1%28 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes29c51$15 inWon+$3611925.2%30 W · 89 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes29c45.81$13 inWon+$32.6552347.6%249 W · 274 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No25c42.14$11 inLost-$10.622,28358.3%1,331 W · 952 L+85.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes53c39.06$21 inWon+$18.573138.7%283 W · 448 L+36.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ed7…e170backed No80c37.61$30 inLost-$302744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2028…cacdbacked Yes64c31.16$20 inWon+$11.161250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5024…3007backed No59c30$18 inLost-$17.8229148.8%142 W · 149 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+62.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6690…9cd2backed Yes80c30$24 inWon+$6.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No41c28.83$12 inLost-$11.872,21656.8%1,258 W · 958 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No62c26$16 inLost-$16.132,23356%1,250 W · 983 L+47.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf06d…7dafbacked No74c24.33$18 inLost-$18.098576.5%65 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No60c23.56$14 inLost-$14.0692145.6%420 W · 501 L-29.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No49c23.18$11 inLost-$11.441,15463.3%731 W · 423 L+28.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No73c23$17 inLost-$16.792,43958%1,414 W · 1,025 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb8…7809backed No66c20.66$14 inLost-$13.6713954%75 W · 64 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…fc0fbacked No62c20$12 inLost-$12.43070%21 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c9a…0cd4backed No68c19.47$13 inLost-$13.2913351.9%69 W · 64 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.