Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c9c1bcb5e554795f7f7dbf8b4f6b7b9d663d018cc9934dd5fad2563222a7d97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 46c | 1,052$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.8 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba8…cdb3backed Over | 45c | 1,042$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…dababacked Under | 56c | 889.36$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 55c | 884.55$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.05 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 23c | 821.74$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 76c | 778.11$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.75 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Under | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 54c | 299.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 66c | 292.95$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.87 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 29c | 282.43$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 79c | 246.87$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 36c | 199.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 45c | 199$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 54c | 192.39$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…33f1backed Over | 45c | 181.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Under | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Under | 61c | 159.95$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.28 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 21c | 99.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 55c | 97.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 65c | 77.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 54c | 73.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Under | 55c | 70.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 38c | 60.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 55c | 56.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 46c | 43.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Over | 46c | 38.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…039bbacked Over | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2a…4e1fbacked Under | 55c | 26.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866e…f7a0backed Over | 46c | 23.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Metz vs. FC Nantes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Metz vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Metz vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Metz (-2.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.