Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ff3e5ae931695250d8f1fac9c192f47aeab318abdd4a917061f6d4afb2e2933
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 67c | 1,441$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.93 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 1,286$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.95 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 70c | 791.28$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.24 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 27c | 747.95$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.06 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 70c | 387.99$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.08 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 342.91$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.33 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 56c | 320.26$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.52 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 314.86$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.38 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 64c | 293.5$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.48 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 72c | 204.83$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.48 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 41c | 175.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.39 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 174.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 47c | 165$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 35c | 147.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.37 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac0…3086backed Over | 73c | 120.44$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 31c | 105.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 54c | 97.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 46c | 95.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -10.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 27c | 93.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 48c | 80.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +203%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d6…fa72backed Over | 49c | 79.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 28c | 74.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 27c | 65.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 75c | 56.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 71c | 55.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 42c | 53.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Over | 42c | 47.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36de…ea85backed Over | 47c | 38.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 44c | 37.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9da…f7d9backed Over | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…26a2backed Over | 73c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked Over | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Metz vs. FC Nantes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Metz vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Metz vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Metz (-2.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.