MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cad5545b3f61302c474a7d4787a19666e7f8e79af7ce609d2f490c154d15120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Over | 50c | 5,026$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 55c | 2,660$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.41 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 1,714$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 50c | 1,223$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.5 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 45c | 1,017$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.32 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 58c | 330$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.3 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 41c | 134.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 43c | 105.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Under | 53c | 71.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 56c | 68.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…c58fbacked Under | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles AngelsNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.