Mls · resolved market
Spread: Toronto FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cca3f80e5c5fea9e01cc5298f27cd48fc25b21f72ddca03dccabaaf84b2a4b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Austin FCof Toronto FC, Austin FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e9b…1e98backed Austin FC | 50c | 105.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x382b…7f14backed Austin FC | 50c | 103.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad0…d55cbacked Austin FC | 50c | 103.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…1e0cbacked Austin FC | 50c | 103.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff0…053cbacked Austin FC | 50c | 103.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…43fbbacked Austin FC | 50c | 102.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…24fbbacked Austin FC | 50c | 102.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e68…31d8backed Austin FC | 50c | 102.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa731…600cbacked Austin FC | 50c | 102.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b13…fc15backed Austin FC | 50c | 102.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b3…0592backed Austin FC | 50c | 102.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5baa…15e2backed Austin FC | 50c | 102.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…d110backed Austin FC | 50c | 101.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bc…40eabacked Austin FC | 50c | 101.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd2…b38bbacked Austin FC | 50c | 101.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…0288backed Austin FC | 50c | 101.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…1100backed Austin FC | 50c | 100.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…1cedbacked Austin FC | 50c | 100.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef7…d991backed Austin FC | 50c | 100.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…2dfebacked Austin FC | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f3…504fbacked Austin FC | 50c | 99.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…0deebacked Austin FC | 50c | 99.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6267…7b54backed Austin FC | 50c | 99.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ca…ecf2backed Austin FC | 50c | 99.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…9e3cbacked Austin FC | 50c | 98.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…afd2backed Austin FC | 50c | 98.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x499a…febcbacked Austin FC | 50c | 98.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa908…d716backed Austin FC | 50c | 96.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfd…f70ebacked Austin FC | 50c | 96.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2f…fcdcbacked Austin FC | 50c | 96.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f25…4938backed Austin FC | 50c | 96.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e6…8431backed Austin FC | 50c | 95.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…ff0bbacked Austin FC | 50c | 95.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a23…e8a9backed Austin FC | 50c | 95.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e70…740dbacked Austin FC | 50c | 95.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…bda4backed Austin FC | 50c | 95.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce1…4304backed Austin FC | 50c | 95.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x679f…f9e0backed Austin FC | 50c | 95.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x911c…f546backed Austin FC | 50c | 94.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…28aebacked Austin FC | 50c | 94.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0f…820bbacked Austin FC | 50c | 94.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…9becbacked Austin FC | 50c | 94.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…ef9ebacked Austin FC | 50c | 94.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f58…7becbacked Austin FC | 50c | 94.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b4…3b3dbacked Austin FC | 50c | 93.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5493…af51backed Austin FC | 50c | 93.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…4471backed Austin FC | 50c | 93.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…e3e1backed Austin FC | 50c | 92.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b9…6782backed Austin FC | 50c | 91.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…4f82backed Austin FC | 50c | 90.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…cc3abacked Austin FC | 50c | 90.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb479…cdcabacked Austin FC | 50c | 90.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…c5e0backed Austin FC | 50c | 89.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…251ebacked Austin FC | 50c | 89.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…f72ebacked Austin FC | 50c | 89.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…e080backed Austin FC | 50c | 87.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe42…8e5cbacked Austin FC | 50c | 87.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…0579backed Austin FC | 50c | 86.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…7007backed Austin FC | 50c | 86.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Austin FC | 77c | 71.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto FC (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Austin FC (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)Austin FC won
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.