Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c87c1083b109604c5f0886833937799bd6200b70fb9040e9b1d4e95a723e59c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ba8…64ecbacked No | 0c | 20,399$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed Yes | 24c | 342.24$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +729.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x806f…7b97backed No | 4c | 274.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Yes | 50c | 99.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 15c | 86.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 47c | 79.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06f1…c46fbacked No | 47c | 76.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 41c | 74.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 65.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…b7b3backed No | 22c | 64.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8dddbacked Yes | 76c | 40.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 46c | 39.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…21cdbacked No | 28c | 39.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1d…ce4abacked Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b7…4f3ebacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 38c | 31.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…3154backed Yes | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes | 54c | 27.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2119…9303backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 40c | 27.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 43c | 24.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 61c | 19.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Austin FC (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)Austin FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-2.5)Austin FC won
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.