Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0340b38a2ddcd8a72d0396f1409ead8fa222a38d4ee166e571c6bb1ca149aa2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,059.98 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d1…288ebacked Under | 51c | 4,488$2,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,288.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked Under | 52c | 1,924$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.28 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 58c | 1,578$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.26 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 42c | 1,250$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.14 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 48c | 805.47$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.84 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 49c | 564.16$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.82 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 48c | 561.46$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.29 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 48c | 511.7$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.37 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 68c | 506.89$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.87 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…fcabbacked Under | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 315.76$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.08 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 66c | 304.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.71 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 34c | 280$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 52c | 274$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.48 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 263.45$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.81 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 50c | 257.21$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.77 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Under | 39c | 253.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 42c | 228$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.24 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2e…5b64backed Over | 49c | 210$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c45…8e5cbacked Under | 53c | 208.59$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 43c | 205.09$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Under | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 48c | 200$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 44c | 183.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.06 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 48c | 110.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…e926backed Under | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 46c | 99.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Under | 39c | 96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +13.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Under | 51c | 92.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 51c | 89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 82.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 52c | 76.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 52c | 57.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 62c | 44.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 51c | 42.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…21a5backed Over | 60c | 33.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…b9bebacked Over | 42c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 51c | 28.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 51c | 28.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 51c | 28.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.34per pick | 55cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 52c | 24.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 58c | 24.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Under | 58c | 24.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 51c | 23.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 51c | 23.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 52c | 21.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 51c | 21.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -7.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 67c | 21.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Over | 63c | 20.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Austin FC (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)Austin FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-2.5)Austin FC won
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.