TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Toronto FCof Austin FC, Toronto FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,050
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,313

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,050 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Austin FC9c293.39$26 inLost-$26.043,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x811a…ac3cbacked Toronto FC50c201.67$101 inWon+$100.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a5d…d649backed Toronto FC50c198.47$99 inWon+$99.24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ad…550ebacked Toronto FC50c197.24$99 inWon+$98.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x187f…e03bbacked Toronto FC50c191.7$96 inWon+$95.85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b5…ca30backed Toronto FC50c191.47$96 inWon+$95.742100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x770d…9458backed Toronto FC50c188.32$94 inWon+$94.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2b4…a2bcbacked Toronto FC50c187.42$94 inWon+$93.712100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9764…7fe5backed Toronto FC50c185.38$93 inWon+$92.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b4e…5169backed Toronto FC50c184.84$92 inWon+$92.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f20…e082backed Toronto FC50c181.3$91 inWon+$90.65250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…5ee7backed Toronto FC50c179.36$90 inWon+$89.682100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x741a…ae6bbacked Toronto FC50c176.57$88 inWon+$88.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd0…b6f0backed Toronto FC50c175.04$88 inWon+$87.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd61…cd69backed Toronto FC50c174.61$87 inWon+$87.31250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa565…2bd0backed Toronto FC50c170.38$85 inWon+$85.192100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+94.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Austin FC8c125$10 inLost-$1016531.5%52 W · 113 L+0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Toronto FC76c41$31 inWon+$9.6510556.2%59 W · 46 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1cc…28a0backed Toronto FC79c37.97$30 inWon+$7.974456.8%25 W · 19 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.