Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5fc7a0576732cb0865c6c69081f02ba4e7248676f9c38545ddf666a576b5214
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 28c | 1,067$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.12 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 1,038$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.78 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 25c | 907.6$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.6 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 72c | 811.24$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.97 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 28c | 635.61$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.64 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 69c | 565.89$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.99 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 67c | 552.6$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.61 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 69c | 364.26$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.77 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 53c | 333.13$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.05 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 36c | 308.12$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.86 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 28c | 278.26$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 23c | 259.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.86 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 24c | 150.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.36 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 48c | 149.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 63c | 138.12$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…8b48backed Under | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 41c | 121.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Over | 31c | 120.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 94 | 37.2%35 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 72c | 101$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 42c | 94.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…f6e1backed Under | 61c | 53.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403a…3173backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…15efbacked Under | 57c | 36.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 76c | 34.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 35c | 32.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 37c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Austin FC (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)Austin FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-2.5)Austin FC won
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.