Serie A · resolved market
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cddf91303824001f2dfc5881a943e94e31a3f8a7b79e817dd1a4635c48d9be7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Genoa CFCof ACF Fiorentina, Genoa CFC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed ACF Fiorentina | 21c | 5,763$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.77 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Genoa CFC | 79c | 3,589$2,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.51 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Genoa CFC | 78c | 1,585$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.74 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed ACF Fiorentina | 23c | 1,323$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.57 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Genoa CFC | 78c | 1,234$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.88 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked ACF Fiorentina | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Genoa CFC | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed ACF Fiorentina | 21c | 778.52$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.49 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed ACF Fiorentina | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed ACF Fiorentina | 21c | 159.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed ACF Fiorentina | 22c | 115.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Genoa CFC | 75c | 104.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed ACF Fiorentina | 22c | 101.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 162 | 19.1%31 W · 131 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked ACF Fiorentina | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6ee7backed ACF Fiorentina | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked ACF Fiorentina | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Genoa CFC | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Genoa CFC | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Genoa CFC | 78c | 27.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Genoa CFC | 79c | 21.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab3…1f0abacked Genoa CFC | 77c | 14.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 3.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)Genoa CFC won
- Spread: Genoa CFC (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: Genoa CFC (-2.5)ACF Fiorentina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.