Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2025-10-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cef365928b5bb3e69ea6370a11d400e1a3399c46f0b31e4e8c8a5b12096fed5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 13c | 5,774$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,023.28 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 13c | 4,369$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,799.34 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 73c | 3,301$2,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420.51 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Yes | 19c | 2,134$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.85 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 1,237$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.21 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 13c | 987.23$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.89 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 13c | 717.56$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.77 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 14c | 684.86$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.18 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 14c | 496.66$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.48 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 79c | 439.07$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.87 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xced3…ce6bbacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 14c | 289.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.7 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…aad2backed Yes | 14c | 260.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x158f…2bb3backed Yes | 14c | 215$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 14c | 192$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.12 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 14c | 149.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.84 | 130 | 16.2%21 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…a3f3backed Yes | 80c | 144.36$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 14c | 140.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.01 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…606ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 46c | 93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28f3…72febacked Yes | 78c | 83.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 77c | 31.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 80c | 14.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2025-10-29?this page
- Will FC Metz vs. Racing Club de Lens end in a draw?No won
- Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.