MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cf4a04c3c43a5335ddf5eb736868311e93182e18f8fedb9c1d4ff31024176ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 20,284$11,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,127.93 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 10,451$4,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,703 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 5,110$2,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,285.7 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 3,957$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.46 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 2,000$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 80c | 1,599$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.8 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 1,350$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.36 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 742.77$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.25 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 720.74$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.19 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 568.18$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 568.18$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f5…84bcbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 540$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2155backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 517.54$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4aa…fa32backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 482.46$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…40d9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 460$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 458.08$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.86 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 362$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.52 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 313$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.78 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 279.49$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 261.32$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.59 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 245.83$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…da81backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -6.2wins | -0.45per pick | 52cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 198.1$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.58 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 195.07$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d9…8806backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 152.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…fec8backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 71.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 70.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 58.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…8444backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 48.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 48.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 46.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 40.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e06…a499backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…9280backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 34.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…4c67backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4816…ee65backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.