Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d0229bf2b1eabb8835d2e0d6e8c9c3b8cecd112fad7582506645c033423a342
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 9c | 820.81$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 27c | 592.71$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.57 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 12c | 517$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 509.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 381.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…313cbacked Yes | 10c | 295.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 9c | 283$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 11c | 274.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…4b53backed Yes | 11c | 247.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 9c | 204$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…b1d9backed Yes | 9c | 198.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…6e42backed Yes | 20c | 179.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 11c | 166.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 158.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 11c | 138.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 135.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 15c | 113.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 15c | 104.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 56c | 64.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 66c | 64.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 64c | 57.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 80c | 53.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 47c | 45.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 42.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 32c | 40.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1753…cafdbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 80c | 33.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…88b9backed Yes | 68c | 29.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 22.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 59c | 22.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…465abacked No | 67c | 18.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 71c | 17.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 71c | 14.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…4dbfbacked No | 71c | 14.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.