Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbdac049c73ba24570d34de49317bf88a32137200c80acc75e4f1fe412824b72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 44c | 1,028$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.85 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 1c | 1,025$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 579.54$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.26 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 57c | 484.09$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.96 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5184…1363backed Yes | 26c | 384.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 64c | 266.57$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.96 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 245.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 233.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 39c | 226.01$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 209.05$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 29c | 207$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 55c | 206.27$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 30c | 206$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 192.35$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.75 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 184.58$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 171$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 169.44$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 34c | 149.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 140.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 130.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 13c | 118.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 115.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 106.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 104.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 29c | 102.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 95.66$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 93.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 33c | 88.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 84.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 71c | 83.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 79.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 29c | 78.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 70c | 70.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 70c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 77c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 29c | 61.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 71c | 60.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 74c | 54.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 52.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 50.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 49.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 47.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c6…ec7abacked No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 48c | 43.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 32c | 43.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 49c | 42.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 38.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 38.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 75c | 32.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 31.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 23.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 69c | 21.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 61c | 20.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6099…da58backed No | 79c | 18.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 73c | 17.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 75c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.