Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98a38d33f8467f44609489ceacf2c1065438722cc4bf9d5d117c2571d91629ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 10c | 1,350$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.63 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 799.54$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 633.18$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.38 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 11c | 499.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 407.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked No | 80c | 318.01$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 212.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 22c | 210.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 180.39$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 176.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 140$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 114.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 27c | 111.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 73c | 107.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 106.74$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 26c | 104.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 84.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 36c | 83.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 81.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 76.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 76.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 75c | 68.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 27c | 66.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…0657backed Yes | 22c | 60.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 74c | 60.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 56.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbc…9282backed Yes | 27c | 54.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 52.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 24c | 49.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 25c | 48.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 26c | 46.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 27c | 44.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 31.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 80c | 25.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 24.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 24.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 78c | 21.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 70c | 20.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 77c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 78c | 16.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 78c | 15.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.