Mls · resolved market
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d588b1eecb8573ea8a81fc1f67ad8a408890973a24497f5ce75df6078d2248c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 24c | 2,666$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.44 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 21c | 2,523$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.85 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 1,895$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.93 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 18c | 1,514$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.47 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 77c | 1,005$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.48 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 20c | 469.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.3 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 17c | 299.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 76c | 257.95$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 77c | 215.12$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 78c | 202.29$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 77c | 128.52$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 112$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 21c | 95.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 23c | 86.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 23c | 81.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 20c | 74.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 77c | 63.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 77c | 43.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 78c | 38.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 76c | 33.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…bd1fbacked Under | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 76c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Under | 77c | 16.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5this page
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.