Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of April 27 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d5898fe5510fa67233cf37bd4c6f1f5a2c353dce13b39ed4925b5986f04f35e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Yes | 78c | 1,178$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.28 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8a83…74e9backed Yes | 48c | 1,047$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 35c | 870.74$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.46 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 60c | 748.07$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.56 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…88b8backed Yes | 64c | 703.12$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.12 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a7dbbacked No | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 54c | 289$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.46 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 10c | 285.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…8b8bbacked Yes | 63c | 231.49$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 10c | 149.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 11c | 149.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 14c | 131.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…bac2backed Yes | 78c | 127.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 77c | 103.03$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…de14backed No | 35c | 89.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 66.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 33c | 62.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd18f…a259backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8474…1266backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…d83dbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…0773backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd956…3281backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509e…f531backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f5…8adfbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f65…84a5backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43b…a814backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494e…fb0bbacked Yes | 32c | 47.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 65c | 45.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4528…24dcbacked Yes | 65c | 37.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 64c | 31.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of April 27 2026?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $2.90 Week of April 27 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 Week of April 27 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.10 Week of April 27 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 Week of April 27 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.30 Week of April 27 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 Week of April 27 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of April 27 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.