Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5da2355f459bbbbb4010c16f695305da9af4979a0fcadbbe888fbb7e84193326
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 840.24$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.95 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 487.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 389.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…54a3backed Yes | 16c | 338.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 304$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 34c | 293.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 277.69$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 260.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 203.17$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 186$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 175.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 63c | 169.73$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 141.58$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 26c | 137.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 74c | 126.7$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 124.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f39…1617backed Yes | 19c | 119.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 32c | 93.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 78c | 83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 79.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3009…be46backed Yes | 24c | 78.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 74.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 63.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 30c | 60.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 52.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 80c | 50.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 69c | 50.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 77c | 48.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 26c | 46.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 38.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 76c | 36.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 35.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 77c | 32.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed No | 66c | 29.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 76c | 28.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 78c | 26.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 26.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 74c | 26.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 22.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 69c | 21.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 73c | 20.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1012…42f1backed No | 77c | 19.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 69c | 17.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.