TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,363
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,980

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,363 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes29c2,766$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,974.024,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc92b…a1c4backed Yes73c1,215$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.132147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No75c1,100$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.5319753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c491.46$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.1212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9750…031dbacked No79c480.85$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.091747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes11c372.22$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.929,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes31c366.36$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.1523436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes44c324.68$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.391,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes63c296.37$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.4925549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes8c292.02$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.411,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes20c287.47$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.131,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No16c276.37$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.661,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes16c263.54$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.3749547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes35c257.56$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.825,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes25c254.46$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.043,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No27c254.27$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8256424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No54c253.73$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1645162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x92b2…31c9backed Yes11c239.44$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.241926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed No38c225.35$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4934050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x036d…e888backed No75c223.2$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.57871.8%56 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf211…385dbacked No7c186.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.277040%28 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No52c173.36$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.311,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No79c164.47$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9363143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No71c150.53$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9451762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No14c148.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1261752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed Yes41c141.31$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3715236.2%55 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes31c136.06$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.458,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No75c129.69$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.521,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes31c129.1$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6354043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0da…4162backed Yes11c111$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.7914953.7%80 W · 69 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No54c103.16$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.611,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd628…76e9backed No73c99.58$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.86650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No72c96.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.182,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No74c91.87$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1227771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4087…9678backed No55c90.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.569553.7%51 W · 44 L-12.1wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-20.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0175…4264backed No60c84.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.039753.6%52 W · 45 L-12.2wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-19.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xda63…8969backed Yes18c81.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.069929.3%29 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No23c71.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5216548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No37c70.57$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.031,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No33c67.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.024,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bd…1503backed Yes17c63$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+198.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes18c57.98$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6716324.5%40 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No27c57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.231,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes46c53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.441,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No25c52.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.981,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca75…d923backed Yes26c52.46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.938436.9%31 W · 53 L-12.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-41.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes62c52.22$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9399962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e83…5659backed No73c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.464344.2%19 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed Yes31c48.49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.471,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No69c47.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5390734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb5…c34fbacked No40c46.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5912962.8%81 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes27c45.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2813943.9%61 W · 78 L-12.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x635a…cccbbacked Yes36c45.11$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.879150.5%46 W · 45 L+7.3wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09d3…fdc5backed No64c45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-73.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes37c44.59$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.091,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No30c44.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.267,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No42c42.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.712,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed Yes31c42.27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2125447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked Yes31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed Yes27c39.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5918242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No79c37.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No59c37.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.213,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No80c37.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3053437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb34d…e1bdbacked No34c34.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.738164.2%52 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb2…0c7abacked No62c32.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+142.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc255…b95cbacked No35c30.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.555228.8%15 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No77c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.952,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ac0…ace0backed No78c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.257463.5%47 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4130…2fd6backed Yes35c28.75$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.689832.7%32 W · 66 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed No78c28.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3919764.5%127 W · 70 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77bd…e48fbacked No46c27.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7220928.7%60 W · 149 L-45.3wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.4%equal weight28-0.19 edge/pick
0x2706…c6bebacked No78c25.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9531866%210 W · 108 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No74c24.01$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.672,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec87…43f9backed No74c23.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.436764.2%43 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No67c22.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.084,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No72c22.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9942049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No51c21.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.143,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xabea…3257backed No73c20.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156473.4%47 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick75cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.622450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No64c18.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2119059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd6a…4614backed Yes66c18.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1310246.1%47 W · 55 L-11.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa907…ba96backed Yes79c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7810955%60 W · 49 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.