Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0033acc66710df66f13f14f1f7af018359de90c31627be0fafa37b852c5e1de7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 770.02$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 15c | 756.12$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.86 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 41c | 474.98$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 30c | 468.95$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.52 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 63c | 317$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.29 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85f4…b3b0backed Yes | 66c | 303.98$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 278.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.46 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 275.27$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 5c | 267.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 261.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 253.72$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 241.49$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.31 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…3b9bbacked Yes | 62c | 241.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 48c | 237.88$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.82 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 56c | 233.43$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.12 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 47c | 232.91$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.08 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…d7cdbacked Yes | 46c | 229.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 225.18$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 45c | 222.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 61c | 216$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 43c | 209.45$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.19 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 59c | 188.76$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 49c | 174.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.04 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 65c | 153.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 60c | 143.22$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 57c | 132.71$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 53c | 130.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 48c | 112$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 55c | 109.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 41c | 109.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 66c | 101.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 43c | 99.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 78c | 95.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 44c | 89.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 87.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…ed2abacked Yes | 50c | 71.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd36d…0a31backed Yes | 26c | 70.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed No | 35c | 70.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 37c | 69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 65c | 68.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 56c | 67.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 58c | 64.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 62.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 38c | 60.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 60c | 59.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 58c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde57…76a4backed Yes | 48c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ca…0022backed Yes | 27c | 56.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 56.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 55c | 55.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 52c | 54.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 39c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 44c | 53.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 50c | 53.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 60c | 53.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 52.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 26c | 51.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 54c | 50.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 34c | 50.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 44c | 50.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 66c | 49.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 61c | 49.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 48c | 45.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 62c | 45.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 43c | 44.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 65c | 43.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 59c | 41.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 43c | 41.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 40.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86f…5069backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 55c | 37.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 36c | 36.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 62c | 35.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 42c | 34.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 33.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 60c | 33.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked Yes | 63c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked Yes | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 58c | 29.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 57c | 28.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 58c | 28.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 47c | 28.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 54c | 28.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 50c | 28.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3f…d4bfbacked No | 53c | 26.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 55c | 26.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 57c | 26.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.