Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane International: Leylah Fernandez vs Dayana Yastremska
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dcaef1f8f4b1a2b2b3c196026aeb2cb6241d3cdab82e922f33b19a02e11942c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yastremskaof Fernandez, Yastremska
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Fernandez | 61c | 807.53$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.97 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yastremska | 37c | 783.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.92 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yastremska | 37c | 646.9$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.14 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yastremska | 67c | 449.35$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.73 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed Yastremska | 71c | 400$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.6 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Fernandez | 38c | 320$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.49 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Fernandez | 26c | 307$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Fernandez | 5c | 254$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd951…f30bbacked Yastremska | 40c | 249.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.66 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fernandez | 45c | 228.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Fernandez | 48c | 224.38$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Yastremska | 38c | 219.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Fernandez | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4890…03f1backed Fernandez | 23c | 183.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 99 | 16.2%16 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Fernandez | 56c | 177.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 733 | 50.9%373 W · 360 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Fernandez | 61c | 171$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Fernandez | 24c | 169.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Fernandez | 64c | 141$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed8e…20c0backed Yastremska | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Fernandez | 61c | 131$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yastremska | 47c | 118.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Fernandez | 65c | 111$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Fernandez | 50c | 108$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yastremska | 54c | 101.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Fernandez | 65c | 99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Fernandez | 64c | 92.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Fernandez | 61c | 85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Fernandez | 25c | 80.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -12.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Yastremska | 36c | 73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Yastremska | 37c | 56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Yastremska | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…5f3bbacked Yastremska | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yastremska | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 684 | 30%205 W · 479 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Yastremska | 39c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…161cbacked Yastremska | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Yastremska | 36c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Yastremska | 35c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Yastremska | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 488 | 52.9%258 W · 230 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Yastremska | 39c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Fernandez | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…d3b3backed Yastremska | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked Yastremska | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Yastremska | 35c | 33.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed Yastremska | 39c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Yastremska | 39c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Yastremska | 39c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…576bbacked Yastremska | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe901…3139backed Fernandez | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 238 | 32.4%77 W · 161 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…7a49backed Yastremska | 45c | 30.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…2e1fbacked Fernandez | 65c | 27.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d0…b604backed Fernandez | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Fernandez | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f50…d342backed Fernandez | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…28e0backed Fernandez | 59c | 18.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Yastremska | 61c | 17.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane International: Leylah Fernandez vs Dayana Yastremskathis page
- Fernandez vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Fernandez vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Fernandez vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Fernandez vs. Yastremska: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Fernandez (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5)Yastremska won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.