WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs Dream
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dec74b907cf98b3ee4f72c82d700b1a8d255eb75107916a4241b19d038ec3e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dreamof Mercury, Dream
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Mercury | 22c | 4,234$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.57 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -10.3wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Dream | 80c | 3,291$2,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.83 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Mercury | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mercury | 57c | 1,660$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.13 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Dream | 42c | 1,409$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.17 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Dream | 43c | 936.93$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.06 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Mercury | 58c | 798.7$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.25 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Dream | 40c | 516.34$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Mercury | 61c | 445.38$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.68 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mercury | 60c | 438$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.8 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20b9…9110backed Dream | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Mercury | 59c | 284.97$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.67 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Dream | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Dream | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mercury | 58c | 224$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.92 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Dream | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…208ebacked Dream | 42c | 180$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3572…38a9backed Mercury | 58c | 167$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mercury | 27c | 165.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6670backed Mercury | 58c | 163$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mercury | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…5d1dbacked Dream | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Mercury | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed Dream | 37c | 149.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…021fbacked Mercury | 58c | 147.3$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Dream | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Mercury | 20c | 121.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Mercury | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Mercury | 59c | 82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Dream | 65c | 72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Mercury | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Mercury | 59c | 66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Mercury | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Dream | 45c | 37.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…b8e9backed Dream | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Dream | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ed…3895backed Mercury | 55c | 19.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…315dbacked Mercury | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.