Commodities · resolved market
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dfe727c1bbc154667e5aa74d4859a4baa9635e86362744ff904150475b81387
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $245,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $289,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Down | 7c | 54,934$3,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,757.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Down | 1c | 10,360$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…5a1bbacked Down | 11c | 9,337$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c1…c8ccbacked Down | 9c | 5,396$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…61b4backed Down | 3c | 5,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf45…94aabacked Down | 6c | 4,817$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Down | 5c | 3,738$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.08 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21d…5eb4backed Down | 5c | 3,358$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Down | 6c | 3,000$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b7…71c8backed Down | 1c | 2,811$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c22…d8ccbacked Down | 2c | 2,790$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f2…5fbdbacked Down | 5c | 2,735$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 2c | 2,535$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Down | 0c | 2,300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Down | 3c | 2,162$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…5104backed Down | 5c | 2,126$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…fe62backed Down | 10c | 2,000$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a98…e1e2backed Down | 1c | 1,935$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.32per pick | 10cpaid | +485.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Down | 4c | 1,710$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…0720backed Down | 1c | 1,338$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Down | 5c | 1,289$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Down | 7c | 1,284$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.43 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9b9abacked Down | 3c | 1,244$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed Down | 1c | 1,129$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Down | 2c | 1,122$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…0643backed Down | 14c | 1,059$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd018…8ca5backed Down | 1c | 1,043$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f45…7250backed Down | 16c | 625.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed Down | 7c | 529.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed Down | 3c | 500.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Down | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Down | 4c | 460.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec5…3a56backed Down | 6c | 410$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5802…e762backed Down | 14c | 394.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…49fdbacked Down | 7c | 360.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Down | 6c | 356.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Down | 6c | 333.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed Up | 65c | 310$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +123%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf80e…2af8backed Down | 12c | 297.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff1…4b92backed Down | 9c | 283.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed Down | 7c | 252.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…fa13backed Down | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f6…a276backed Down | 12c | 238.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…5503backed Down | 4c | 234.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6088…27b4backed Down | 13c | 232.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…2c0cbacked Down | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Down | 7c | 168.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +131.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…05bfbacked Down | 8c | 122.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2931…edc0backed Down | 13c | 91.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbb…a995backed Down | 15c | 67.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.