South American Leagues · resolved market
Santos FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e3cb30b2ee1e08f22c8fcf4a6fed626c0ac7274a54027105dff547a8b37421b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes | 55c | 3,654$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,653.77 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 46c | 2,800$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.88 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed No | 5c | 2,562$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.68 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 46c | 2,000$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.92 | 194 | 47.9%93 W · 101 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 46c | 1,205$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.48 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Yes | 48c | 958.29$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.31 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0852…655cbacked Yes | 30c | 556.1$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.74 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 52c | 480$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 52c | 478.29$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.71 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 70c | 464.89$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.16 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Yes | 53c | 455.53$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.1 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Yes | 53c | 360$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.2 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 53c | 345$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.63 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 317.02$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.11 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 46c | 280.7$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.73 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 45c | 271.94$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 26c | 187.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Yes | 38c | 119.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 29c | 111.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 48c | 108.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Yes | 76c | 87.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…e10cbacked Yes | 52c | 81.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed Yes | 53c | 47.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Yes | 53c | 40.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…0acebacked Yes | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 50c | 35.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Yes | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 47c | 24.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 170 | 67.6%115 W · 55 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Santos FC leading at halftime?this page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.