CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs 500 (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e51d7bd94ebe15972a9edaa58ebf20030b61464d321f7f8d085bc2da10c5963
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Heroic, 500
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed 500 | 22c | 6,750$1,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.91 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Heroic | 77c | 2,788$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.37 | 196 | 60.7%119 W · 77 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75fc…ee34backed Heroic | 78c | 2,691$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.94 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Heroic | 79c | 2,640$2,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.61 | 1,623 | 44.9%728 W · 895 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…a780backed 500 | 26c | 1,992$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.35 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed 500 | 26c | 1,923$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Heroic | 72c | 1,328$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.4 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ec…5348backed Heroic | 75c | 1,315$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.75 | 724 | 53.7%389 W · 335 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Heroic | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed 500 | 23c | 1,265$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.23 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed 500 | 16c | 1,222$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 229 | 42.8%98 W · 131 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…a367backed 500 | 27c | 801.96$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.53 | 283 | 44.2%125 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Heroic | 77c | 800$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed 500 | 31c | 670.77$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.41 | 818 | 43.2%353 W · 465 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked 500 | 26c | 665.38$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 656 | 62.3%409 W · 247 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed 500 | 5c | 622.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 500 | 29c | 584.47$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.85 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed Heroic | 76c | 513$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.12 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Heroic | 75c | 328$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed 500 | 19c | 307.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f4…e02fbacked 500 | 14c | 307.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…a903backed Heroic | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 114 | 40.4%46 W · 68 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c6…e547backed 500 | 32c | 262.25$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.35per pick | 43cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed 500 | 22c | 234.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde50…cf46backed Heroic | 75c | 210$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed 500 | 25c | 206.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked 500 | 12c | 180$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked 500 | 19c | 168.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 200 | 52.5%105 W · 95 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…556cbacked 500 | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 323 | 52%168 W · 155 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb819…cc67backed Heroic | 79c | 120.01$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Heroic | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a0…f9d1backed 500 | 32c | 115.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1e…07d1backed Heroic | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Heroic | 77c | 87.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed 500 | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…baa4backed 500 | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57b…b5eabacked 500 | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f9…c327backed Heroic | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 177 | 61%108 W · 69 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a1…70e2backed 500 | 35c | 53.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…09f2backed 500 | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Heroic | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed 500 | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…c0b6backed Heroic | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 69 | 62.3%43 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…bbfabacked Heroic | 79c | 45.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Heroic | 77c | 40.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Heroic | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd543…e995backed Heroic | 77c | 36.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed 500 | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1698…2cdcbacked Heroic | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…7d17backed Heroic | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…97a3backed Heroic | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.