Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e54e3a3aed0b8b241b7aa91802a97cb1bf0a8b9cd965882e71e53c089c9be91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 32c | 466.3$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 8c | 426.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 31c | 188.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 44c | 181.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 17c | 147.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 15c | 147$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 19c | 139.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 124.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 46c | 123.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 116.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…17e5backed No | 48c | 99.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 51c | 82.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 75.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 68c | 69.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 60.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 64c | 54.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 49c | 53.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 52.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 49.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 47c | 46.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 53c | 44.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 80c | 43.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 58c | 43.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 53c | 41.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10a9…75b0backed Yes | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…b552backed Yes | 80c | 37.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 56c | 35.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f7…93a4backed Yes | 52c | 35.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 52c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 55c | 32.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 42c | 27.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…92adbacked Yes | 38c | 27.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 24.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 23.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 63c | 23.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39eb…c75fbacked Yes | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 21.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 69c | 16.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 70c | 16.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…ad68backed Yes | 80c | 15.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.