Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77492c2a5114fa53cf44574cd159893e1fc3606f6dc0d630696234b42b3c07b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 2c | 5,332$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 153.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 115.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 77c | 112.64$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 26c | 85.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 23c | 79.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…17e5backed Yes | 31c | 78.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 41c | 50.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad9…7e66backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 49.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 77c | 39.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 78c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked No | 77c | 32.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x275f…aa1abacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa51e…db50backed No | 73c | 24.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 64c | 23.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 77c | 23.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 20.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 79c | 18.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 79c | 15.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 76c | 15.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 76c | 14.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 78c | 13.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1777…4e65backed No | 78c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.