Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 19 – Jan 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e80f5f73f9ec00105cc7f7665a3a18b3e0ee5d7c42605c8b5dde36d733fc9b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked Yes | 23c | 944.78$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 2c | 598.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…3b61backed Yes | 42c | 302$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 80c | 194.64$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 180.07$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 78c | 116$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 64c | 87.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…91d1backed No | 54c | 74.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 19 – Jan 23?this page
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 19 – Jan 23?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $70-$80 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 19 – Jan 23?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 19 – Jan 23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.