NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e87bf33bffa6f6c5d05cd4c8fa775b0b8db5ea82a738443898668383cd36b9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,699.99 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 47c | 7,017$3,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,297.99 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 48c | 3,971$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.06 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…d142backed Under | 54c | 2,289$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.94 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed Over | 47c | 2,275$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.48 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 46c | 2,222$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.12 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 52c | 1,808$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.69 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 52c | 1,400$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 53c | 953.19$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 52c | 794$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.12 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 50c | 729$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.17 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Over | 48c | 630$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 52c | 500.67$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.37 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 54c | 481.48$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.48 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 48c | 439.99$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.2 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 50c | 436.28$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.14 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 47c | 255.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 245.54$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2e…7913backed Under | 75c | 235.16$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Over | 47c | 219.15$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 187.17$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.25 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 48c | 123$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 17c | 87.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 24c | 61.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78e0…2bb0backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7608…92e2backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x432f…0b4cbacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Over | 45c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 26c | 48.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…55a4backed Over | 46c | 48.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Under | 69c | 48.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 76 | 71.1%54 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Under | 77c | 42.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 46c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 62c | 37.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 46c | 36.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 34c | 35.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 41c | 35.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…7cfabacked Over | 47c | 35.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…7560backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 54c | 25.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5this page
- Flames vs. DucksDucks won
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.