NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4a1eab2718b30df35916846deb4c3a7589c8656649fa43cfde302363fb81dd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Over | 6c | 1,201$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +14.5wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +218.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 67c | 1,080$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.73 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 9c | 940.79$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 42c | 809$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.22 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 39c | 785.36$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.14 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 654.26$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 55c | 635.75$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.23 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 40c | 573.33$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over | 60c | 522.95$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.47 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Over | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 21c | 440.04$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 40c | 370.08$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.17 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 58c | 230.4$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Over | 60c | 208.33$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 58c | 196$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 184.61$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.66 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 60c | 166.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb0…9a6cbacked Over | 33c | 129$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 120.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 40c | 116.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 30c | 109.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…80bbbacked Over | 60c | 108.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…81a3backed Over | 60c | 102.03$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71eb…5ec6backed Over | 59c | 96.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x893e…c716backed Over | 59c | 88.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 42c | 86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 58c | 86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x835c…8e3bbacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…d270backed Over | 59c | 75.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb122…8405backed Over | 58c | 67.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…f7f0backed Over | 60c | 58.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…7f1cbacked Over | 60c | 58.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…916dbacked Over | 60c | 58.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…20c0backed Over | 60c | 54.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 64cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…ba79backed Over | 60c | 46.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6896…c672backed Over | 60c | 43.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 45c | 34.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 39c | 26.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Over | 61c | 25.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…7291backed Under | 52c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5this page
- Flames vs. DucksDucks won
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.