NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb0351f5a326a8f45e02e1c0da69f528a1767917656f2c72c5f9d542b602a1bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Ducks, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Ducks | 42c | 9,491$3,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,973.88 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Flames | 58c | 7,620$4,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,198.59 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Flames | 60c | 2,222$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.9 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Flames | 58c | 2,127$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.74 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Ducks | 43c | 1,678$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.72 | 247 | 49.8%123 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Flames | 59c | 1,422$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.84 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Ducks | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Ducks | 40c | 955$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Ducks | 41c | 664.68$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Ducks | 41c | 609.76$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Flames | 58c | 587$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.54 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Flames | 77c | 477.93$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.97 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Flames | 60c | 416.84$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.84 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Ducks | 40c | 409.3$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.65 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Flames | 60c | 251.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.55 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Flames | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Flames | 57c | 233.48$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Flames | 59c | 203.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Ducks | 18c | 201.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Flames | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Ducks | 40c | 199.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Ducks | 43c | 186.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Ducks | 15c | 157.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Flames | 60c | 143.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Flames | 61c | 130.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ducks | 23c | 122.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Ducks | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Ducks | 40c | 107.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Ducks | 39c | 105.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Flames | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Ducks | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Ducks | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Flames | 72c | 97.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Flames | 58c | 91.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Flames | 58c | 91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a50…09f4backed Flames | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Flames | 60c | 81.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed Ducks | 41c | 78.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Flames | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Ducks | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…e998backed Flames | 58c | 53.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Ducks | 27c | 51.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7608…92e2backed Ducks | 43c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x432f…0b4cbacked Flames | 59c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Flames | 59c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ducks | 38c | 46.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Ducks | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Ducks | 40c | 39.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Ducks | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Ducks | 40c | 33.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aaa…762fbacked Flames | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Flames | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 103 | 55.3%57 W · 46 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83b7…be96backed Ducks | 42c | 27.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6058…1327backed Ducks | 41c | 27.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed Ducks | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Flames | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Flames | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…7291backed Flames | 68c | 23.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Flames | 64c | 23.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Flames | 77c | 16.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Flames vs. DucksDucks won
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.